The U.S. Navy’s current challenges are often described as discrete problems, such as shipbuilding delays, maintenance backlogs, operational strain, and technological disruption. Taken individually, each is serious but manageable. Taken together, they suggest a broader institutional debility. USN carrier strike group – still ruling the waves? At the center of the problem is a closed loop of deteriorating capability. Limited shipbuilding constrains fleet growth. A smaller-than-required fleet raises operational tempo, accelerating wear, deepening maintenance backlogs, and reducing readiness. As availability declines, the burden shifts to the remaining deployable assets, reinforcing the cycle. This dynamic is not temporary; it is self-reinforcing. Attempts to break this loop through force regeneration have been hindered by procurement failures that do not reliably translate investment into scalable combat power.…