From roughly January through April, “Make Europe Great Again” was the trade. Every macro podcast had the obligatory “Is this Europe’s moment?” episode.
Why EM kept going? Short answer, it’s a sort of gold+AI proxy, hitting the weak US dollar and AI “picks and shovels” themes together; higher oil be damned.
So is this the start of a longer non-U.S. run or just a cyclical pop inside a longer U.S.-led regime? Honest answer: Who knows? EM has done this dance before - 2017 looked like the turn, and it absolutely was not.
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Here's the thing about volatile markets: when things are getting hit, you look at home first. It's reflexive. Your newsfeed is dialed to the S&P, CNBC's on in the background, the watchlist on your phone (fine, your watch) is 80% U.S. tickers. That's where the bleeding is; that's
