The SoH is fundamentally impaired. The back end of the oil curve is priced for a reality that doesn't exist. The macro landscape is clear to anyone paying attention. The conflict in the Middle East has effectively shuttered the Strait of Hormuz, and despite the persistent narrative regarding diplomatic off-ramps, those channels are currently non-existent. This is not a temporary logistical hiccup; it is a structural impairment of global energy transit. Take a look at the attached futures strip. The paper market is suffering from a massive disconnect. While the front-month contracts reflect the immediate panic, the back end of the curve is in deep backwardation. The market is pricing in a scenario where this conflict resolves by late summer and global supply chains immediately revert to a pre-war state. That is an exercise in delusion.…