The “chips = new oil” analogy is everywhere right now. But history doesn’t fully support it. Japan has no oil and still built a $30k+ per capita economy. Iran sits on one of the most critical oil chokepoints in the world, yet the average income is a fraction of that.

So clearly, owning the resource ≠ capturing the value. Feels like we might be making the same mistake again with AI. Everyone’s obsessed with GPUs, fabs, supply chains.

But the real question is: Will value accrue to those who produce the chips… or those who actually build applications on top of them?

Because if it’s the latter, then Nvidia might be today’s winner, but the long-term winners might look very different.

WDYT?