I recently published my research on the Pessimism Paradox , which describes an uneasy equilibrium between crashing consumer sentiment and disproportionately strong economic fundamentals. I identified four forces that maintain this tenuous balance – amplification , proximity , polarization , and indulgence . While we were putting the research through our rigorous vetting process, a new war broke out in the Middle East. War does not just move markets. It moves mindsets. And when the shock runs through energy — as it is doing now — it hits consumers where they are most vulnerable. Will the Iran war change what we’ve said about consumer behavior in the post-pandemic era? Fortunately, we have the benefit of hindsight to answer that question. The best empirical window comes from the World War II surveys conducted by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.…